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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.19% Currencies:  USA$ +0.15% CAD -0.03% YEN -0.65%  BTC/USD+1.4%  Vix:20.15

·       Events:USA: NVDA earnings after close

·       Stock News: AXON+16%, HSBC+5%, TJX 0%, CIRCL+17%, FSLR-16.5%, MELI-5%, WDAY-9.5%, LOW-3.6%, SHOO-1.7%     Earnings  

·       Equity: USA indices higher premarket with a clear risk-on vibe ahead of NVDA earnings. IWM is leading, and bitcoin, AI winners and losers are both higher, which feels like short covering. SPY is just below 690, which is a key level that can act as resistance or a breakout level. QQQ 610 is similar. MAGS are higher, with the exception of AAPL, which seems to be the defensive one that moves inversely to the herd. NVDA and AI semi bros are higher premarket. The planet expects NVDA to beat, and it’s common for NVDA to run into the print and swoon in subsequent days. CRM and SNOW are reporting and will be critical for the software sector sentiment, which is currently very poor. The software names have very high IV and puts are well bid, so there is potential for a recovery bounce as IV falls if guidance is inline to better. WDAY lower is not helping with weaker than expected guidance. Metals are higher as momentum continues to be strong. Defense higher as Trump SOTU talked about military spending focus. AXON higher on earnings as demand for Tasers and body cameras in a bull market. CRCL is higher on earnings, and it looks like shorts are getting squeezed which can squeeze the beaten down crypto names which have been in a death spiral. Lithium is hot again maybe because the entire periodic table is hot but SGML, ALB are higher despite LI being a common element. SPX is well supported while > 6900 with likely resistance at 6925, 6975 from 0DTE. General positioning is puts well bid compared to calls 

·       with general unwillingness to buy the right tail but given the positioning, a negative catalyst can lead to a sharp drawdown so one can keep an open mind.  NVDA, CRM, SNOW may be catalysts, we will see.

·       Daily Expected Move. SPX(6932-6848), SPY(692-683), QQQ(614-602),  IWM(266-261)

Stocks to watch NVDA, MU, AXON, ALB, AAPL, LOW, HPQ, FSLR  Speculative SGML, AXTI, CRCL  
Indices ETHE, SLV, IBIT, GDX, ARKF, XME, ARKK, SMH, UNG, TLT, XLP, KWEB

S&P500 AXON, ALB, STX, HOOD, ENPH, WDC, FCX, ORCL, GNRC, GLW, FSLR, GDDY, HPQ, FOXA, LOW, FOX, ALGN, MOS Other CRCL, SGML, AXTI, BMNR, CRML, RIOT, MSTR, USAR, SOFI, CLSK, HL, ODD, DRVN, HLN, NVO, TEM

CRM

CRM reports after the close. Stock price has been cut by 50% since the highs and recently suffered with SAAS and concerns that AI will negatively impact the sector. Expected move is +/-17 and positioning is bearish. The IV percentile is 97% which means the options are very expensive and this week’s IV is 2.5x March.  Diagonal trades are a strategy for directional or potentially double diagonal or longer dated short strangle to trade the IC crush. SNOW is another name reporting with a similar vol setup