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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond 0.58% Currencies: USA$+.02%, CAD -0.07%, YEN +0.33%, BTC/USD+0.88%, Vix:24.1

·       Events:USA: Trump threatened to attack Iran’s power plants, and this morning says that talks with Iran over the last 2 days were productive and has postponed attacks
Stock News:       Earnings
Equity: Global indices were lower overnight after Trump had threatened to attack Iran power plants in 48hrs but shockingly:) have squeezed higher after he tweeted that the discussion with Iran on an end of the war was productive and has delayed attacks for up to 5 days. I have seen tweets saying Iran media saying that there has been no direct or indirect contact with Trump. Positioning in the equity market is short, so a squeeze higher in beaten-down stocks and lower in energy is underway, but one should be careful extrapolating the latest Trump tweet as marking an end to the war. IMO USA wants to end the war, but there are also Israel and Iran to consider, and both are looking for a lot more than a ceasefire, which Trump is craving. If the squeeze continues, the weakest names will typically outperform, with IWM leading the USA indices and MAGS names AVGO, NVDA, and META bouncing. Energy names are lower, but if one believes that the energy complex is already damaged or Trump’s tweet is wishful thinking, it could be an opportunity. SPX was below the 6475 put position premarket and is now well above. The SPX put wall is at 6500, QQQ put wall 590, which are key levels to watch. Oil lower is lifting the airlines and cruisers, and would benefit if the war ends. The beneficiaries of the Hormuz closure i.e. fertilizer (CF), oil and nat gas are reversing. DKNG is higher on a bill that would not allow the prediction markets like Kalshi to allow sports betting.
   
Stock IWM, DKNG, CCL, STT, CF, OXY Speculative PL, VG
Indices IWM, KRE, SMH, IYT, IGV, XLF, QQQ, EFA, XLK, UNG, GLD, XLE

S&P500 JCI, KEYS, CCL, UAL, STT, LUV, TT, RCL, NCLH, IVZ, CF, OXY, APA, DVN, LYB, HII, CTRA, DOW, EOG, FANG
Other DKNG, TSEM, MT, SAN, RKT, XPEV, AU, LITE, BHP, PL, HSBC, EQNR, PBR, VG, SHEL

USO

Oil is lower after Trump’s tweet that talks with Iran are proceeding well and he has delayed attacks on Iran power generation for 5 days. Iran has denied, so may be just a red herring.  Straddle approach today with long > 116.5 and fade < 109. IV is high, but so options, which are expensive, but one can use spreads or butterflies. Oil and nat gas names like OXY, APA are alternative ways to trade energy.