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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.86% Currencies: USA$-0.18%, CAD -0.19%, YEN +0.06%, BTC/USD+3.70% Vix:23.9

·       Events:USA: USA has sent a 15 point proposal to Pakistan to pass on to Iran. Market bounces on any hint of peace. Meanwhile, US marines enroute, Iran denies negotiations with the USA have started, and bombing continues.
Stock News: PDD+2%, BRAZE+20%, CTAS+2%, KBH 0%, CHWY-.6%  Earnings
Equity: Global indices are another short squeeze on a report that USA sent a 15-point proposal to Pakistan to pass on to Iran. Iran continues to deny that discussions are taking place. bombing continues, and the USA Marines are en route. The market is reversing the war trade, so US$ and yields are lower, which leads to bonds, equity, and gold higher, and oil and fertilizer lower. It’s a headline driven market and, absent concrete facts, expecting volatility to continue. When the market squeezes, the weakest/most shorted names bounce the most, and hence IWM is leading and beaten down MAGS are higher, led by TSLA, NVDA, and of course PLTR. Damage to the energy infrastructure will not be repaired quickly, and even if the war is terminated immediately, there are shortages of LNG in Europe, so one should keep an eye on the energy names. S&P is pulling back from the overnight pop with SPY reaching the top of the daily expected move premarket and one can use SPX 6600 as a pivot level today with +/-50 as potential targets based on 0DTE positioning.

·      
Stock TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, GLD, SLV, CF, OXY, ON Speculative ARM, CDE, XPEV
Indices GDX, SLV, GLD, IBIT, ETHE, KWEB, UFO, ARKX, XME, ARKK, SMH,  /CL, UNG, XLE, UUP, XBI

S&P500 NEM, INTC, HOOD, NCLH, FCX, UAL, RCL, CCL, PAYX, SMCI,  CF, OXY, APA, DVN, EOG, FANG, COP, BG, XOM, PCG
Other ARM, GFI, AU, CDE, IAG, PAAS, HL, SATS, KGC, B, CRCL, ON, EQNR, VG, XPEV, PBR, SKM, ELAN, AS 

CDE

CDE is a gold miner that was recently listed on the TSX/NYSE after the acquisition of Newgold.  Gold miners have been weak after a large run-up as part of the dollar depreciation trade. There have been large dark pool buying in the 17.89-18.3 range and call buyers at 20, 22.5. Gold is susceptible to further pullbacks, but it looks like institutions are taking larger positions—a candidate to consider for a longer-term position. IV is elevated, so one can consider calendar/ debit spreads or even short puts/covered call.  Caveat that gold is moving with war risk, so caution is warranted, but it’s interesting that institutions are taking large positions.