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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.45% Currencies: USA$ +0.77%, CAD -0.23%, YEN -0.36%, BTC/USD-2.71%, Vix: 22.6

·       Events:USA: USA/Israel Iran attack ongoing, oil shipment paused; Trump talking about larger attacks and longer duration

·       Stock News: TGT+4%, VIK+0.19%, BBY+10%, SE-16%, ONON-10%, AZO-4.7%, MDB-26% Earnings  

·       Equity: Global indices lower following Monday squeeze as put monetization versus call buying lifted the indices. Premarket, the SPX and NDX are below put walls and susceptible to large moves in either direction. Largest SPX 0DTE is 6675 and 6900, and in between can be choppy. While below 6800 (like now) potential for a large drop. MAGS are all weaker with AMD and NVDA leading to the downside, with a report that the US govt may limit sales to Chinese companies. Add to the witches’ brew the concern that high energy costs will impact AI data center earnings, private credit issues, and now middle east war, and it’s not a great set-up for the AI narrative.  Oil is higher as Trump is talking bigger attacks, and Iran continues to resist, and Llloyds wont insure ships. A byproduct of the St Hormuz shut is fertililizer shipments are reduced, which is positive for stocks like MOS, CF, and potentially soft commodities, which are lifting. Gold, silver, and other metals are lower, which smells like a need for liquidity and bonds are lower which is either an inflation concern or again a need for liquidity. Liquidity issues are what lead to vol spikes and large equity moves. TGT and BBY higher post earnings and MDB, SE, and ONON are lower. Can watch these names for continuation or reversal. Usually there is a BTD as shorts monetize at the open, and the question is whether its transitory or can last throughout the day (like Mon). Vix futures are starting to invert i.e. March > June, which is a red flag for risk. Smart money is hedging, which ultimately can lead to the sharp recovery that traders are always expecting, but breaches of the hedges lead to fast down drafts to potentially 6600s. Keep seat belt on:)

Stocks to watch BBY, CF, OXY, GLD, NVDA, AMD, MU Speculative
Indices /CL, UNG, XLE, UUP, SLV, GDX, FEZ, XME, EFA, ARKK, SMH, GLD

S&P500 BBY, TGT, CF, OXY, XOM, RTX, FCX, NRG, ALB, STX, AZO, MU, BX, HOOD, WDC, TER

SPY

SPY premarket is at the put wall, which is a level that can be used as a pivot level. Corresponds to the Mon overnight low and was breached overnight. Above 678.7 and 680 are upside targets, and below 668.4. IV is elevated, so one can consider spreads or flies to trade either direction. The largest SPX 0DTE position is 6675, which potentially is the lower target today based on positioning.