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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.45% Currencies: USA$ +0.77%, CAD -0.23%, YEN -0.36%, BTC/USD-2.71%, Vix: 22.6

·       Events:USA: USA/Israel Iran attack ongoing, oil shipment paused; Trump talking about larger attacks and longer duration

·       Stock News: TGT+4%, VIK+0.19%, BBY+10%, SE-16%, ONON-10%, AZO-4.7%, MDB-26% Earnings  

·       Equity: Global indices lower following Monday squeeze as put monetization versus call buying lifted the indices. Premarket, the SPX and NDX are below put walls and susceptible to large moves in either direction. Largest SPX 0DTE is 6675 and 6900, and in between can be choppy. While below 6800 (like now) potential for a large drop. MAGS are all weaker with AMD and NVDA leading to the downside, with a report that the US govt may limit sales to Chinese companies. Add to the witches’ brew the concern that high energy costs will impact AI data center earnings, private credit issues, and now middle east war, and it’s not a great set-up for the AI narrative.  Oil is higher as Trump is talking bigger attacks, and Iran continues to resist, and Llloyds wont insure ships. A byproduct of the St Hormuz shut is fertililizer shipments are reduced, which is positive for stocks like MOS, CF, and potentially soft commodities, which are lifting. Gold, silver, and other metals are lower, which smells like a need for liquidity and bonds are lower which is either an inflation concern or again a need for liquidity. Liquidity issues are what lead to vol spikes and large equity moves. TGT and BBY higher post earnings and MDB, SE, and ONON are lower. Can watch these names for continuation or reversal. Usually there is a BTD as shorts monetize at the open, and the question is whether its transitory or can last throughout the day (like Mon). Vix futures are starting to invert i.e. March > June, which is a red flag for risk. Smart money is hedging, which ultimately can lead to the sharp recovery that traders are always expecting, but breaches of the hedges lead to fast down drafts to potentially 6600s. Keep seat belt on:)

Stocks to watch BBY, CF, OXY, GLD, NVDA, AMD, MU Speculative
Indices /CL, UNG, XLE, UUP, SLV, GDX, FEZ, XME, EFA, ARKK, SMH, GLD

S&P500 BBY, TGT, CF, OXY, XOM, RTX, FCX, NRG, ALB, STX, AZO, MU, BX, HOOD, WDC, TERGlobal Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.36% Currencies: USA$ -0.27% CAD +0.07% YEN +0.28%  BTC/USD+3.5% Vix:22.35

·       Events:USA: ADP jobs 830ET; ISM services 10ET; NY times published a report leaked by CIA that Iran was secretly  talking about a truce which lifted markets overnight

·       Stock News:CRWD+0.4%, BBWI+3%, GTLB-7.8%, ANF-2% Earnings  

·       Equity: Global indices higher ex-China after further selling Tues morning and subsequent bounce. Last 2 days the USA markets have fallen in the morning and lifted in the afternoon as put buyers monetize. Tues also had signs of liquidity issues with metals, stocks and bonds selling. Premarket today the market is bidding up risk-on assets like silver, bitcoin, semiconductors and the general OpenAi leaning AI names. Vix futures are inverted, with March > June which indicates institutions are hedging. Yields are rising and spreads are increasing which indicates concern in credit markets. With the backdrop of plenty of reasons for concern which lead to hedging, the intraday moves are governed by 0DTE trading.  Premarket the largest positions are 6875, 6815, 6775, 6760 which can act as pivot levels. Due to the hedging there is potential for large moves intraday in either direction. There is econ data today with ADP jobs 830ET and ISM services 10ET which historically market moving but with an ongoing war expect large moves on tweets and rumors. Earnings names in play today: CRWD BBWI+,  GTLB ANF-. After the close AVGO reports which will be important for the tech sector. MAGS today led by AVGO, NVDA and GOOGL, AAPL lagging. Monkeys like to buy ahead of earnings so watch AVGO. Memory names and Korea were slammed Tues as profit taking hit the best performing country/sector and ekeing out a bounce today. Foreign ETFs which have outperformed the USA markets were hit Tues as they are more sensitive to energy prices potentially after Trump said that US warships will protect tankers and USA govt will underwrite insurance. Consider that the Strait of Hormuz is narrow and it would be extremely easy to sink US ships or tankers so IMO the energy risk hasnt been resolved and market hasnt priced in further escalation so take care 

Stocks to watch NVDA, AVGO, IBIT, SLV, OXY, TLT, XLF Speculative SSRM, BBWI, GTLB
Indices IBIT, SLV, ETHE, GDX, GLD, XME, ARKK, SMH, /CL, KWEB, IGV, UNG, TLT, XLE, XLC, XLF, UUP, XLP

S&P500 MRNA, COIN, HOOD, SNDK, GLW, NEM, MU, FCX, WDC, OXY, QCOM
Other SSRM, MSTR, BBWI, BMNR, LASR, APLD, AAOI, AXTI, COHR, AA, IREN, GTLB, KEP, IBRX, FRO, RELX, ANF, VG, DHT

AVGO

AVGO reports after the close. Important read on the AI and general technology market and due to market cap important to the SPY and QQQ. Option positioning is skewed to puts and IV elevated. Expected move +/-25. AVGO has moved outside the expected move 8/12 prior reports so potential risk with neutral trades like iron condors.  Based on option positioning a move between 280 and 350 is possible. One can consider directional trades with diagonals taking advantage of elevated IV this week or butterflies but flies will not provide great profit until later in the week. AVGO will move SMH and likely NVDA, TSM so these may be proxies