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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.48% Currencies: USA$ +0.16%, CAD +0.02%, YEN -0.28%, BTC/USD-0.67%, Vix:21.45

·       Events:USA: Weekly jobs 830ET; Iran war continues. Qatar declares force majeure, cancelling contracts, and Russia is reported to stop selling gas to Europe. The net impact is higher energy prices and electricity prices.
Stock News:AVGO+6.3%, VEEV+10%, OKTA+1.6%, CBRL+7.6%, MRVL+2.3%, BURL+6.7%, AEO-2%, RGTI-4.5%, KR-0.9%, BJ-4%, CIEN-2.6%, JD-1%, VSCO-6.9% Earnings  

·       Equity: USA indices are slightly lower after a short squeeze Wed as USA/Israel attacks continue.  Energy prices are continuing to rise, but are still trading optimistically with the risk that production can be struck rather than shipment paused. Bond yields are rising as inflation increases and the probability of Fed rate cuts is reduced. Countries most impacted by higher energy prices are Europe, Korea, India, and Japan, and those markets are under pressure. MAGS are led by AVGO, which reported better-than-expected earnings and provided a good forecast. The bulk of MAGS are lower with AMZN, META, MSFT having large moves Wed (short squeeze) that took prices to the weekly expected move, retracing. When a MAGS makes a large move, and the index doesn’t, other names typically need to pullback.  IWM is the weakest index, which suggests a risk-off set-up.  Vix futures and MOVE pulled back Wed with the short squeeze but may bounce today. Wed option trading was dominated by put selling rather than call buying, which indicates a lack of conviction. Today SPX 6850 is a good pivot level to watch with a range of 6800-6900 possible, depending on what 0DTE traders decide to do at the open. There are some earnings names to watch for moves in RTH: AVGO, VEEV, BURL, AEO, CIEN, VSCO are some names to watch, with AVGO and SMH the big names. NVDA has pulled back, suggesting it’s a zero-sum game, but as always, it will be a target for option traders.

Stocks to watch AVGO, VEEV, MRVL, BURL, NVDA, AMZN, META, CIEN, VSCO Speculative CRDO, MSTR, STUB
Indices /CL, SLV, UNG, GLD, IGV, XLE, UUP, KWEB, ETHE, IWM, XLY, XBI, TLT, EFA, XLU, XLV, XLF

S&P500 AVGO, MRVL, MSTR, STX, WDC, PANW, BKR, APP, ZS, CSGP, WMT, FANG, AMD, META, NFLX, AMGN, TMUS
Other RTO, CRDO, AMPX, ALAB, WIX, FIGR, ALM, MRVL, BILI, HUN,  STUB, IREN, RGTI, COHR, SHC, LITE, AAOI, AXTI, SBSW, CIEN, FRO, BABA, AU, MDLN, ASTS, CRWV

COST

COST is the big name reporting after the close with expected move +/- 32 . COST has moved outside the expected move 6/12 earnings reports. Skew is neutral and IV percentile is moderate. Expensive stock but one can consider flies or calendar spreads to trade directionally. If thinking neutral consider that the track record for COST moving outside the expected move. Valuation expensive with PE 53 as COST is considered a safety trade as its customers tend to be wealthier and they collect membership fees