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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.11% Currencies: USA$-0.52%, CAD +0.28%, YEN +0.26%, BTC/USD+1.22% Vix:24.35

·       Events USA: ADP jobs 815ET; Retail sales 830ET; ISM mfg PMI CDN: MFG PMI 930ET EUR: PMI better than expected
Stock News: NKE-10.7%, RH-17.6%, CAG-.13%, LW-1.5%, PVH+1%, POET+2% Earnings
Equity: Global indices are higher premarket on the first day of the new quarter. As expected, the JPM roll, EOM rebalance, and hope that the Iran war will end resulted in a bounce, which has lifted the USA indices to the top of the weekly expected move. Oil remains elevated but down from the highs, and US$ lower benefits foreign equities, metals, and the most speculative equities. Premarket goldminers, optical, semis are leading i.e. the AI data center and dollar debasement trade. The energy and commodity names are lower even though the missiles are still flying and the damage to production is unknown, and in addition, the USA ground troops are building in the Middle East. The Opex has removed some of the downside baffles that have kept the USA market from falling despite many reasons for it to, and now the setup is for potential continuation with potential for 6750 or 6250, as now the shock absorbers are gone. Despite tweets that everything is going great, oil remains high, and concerns of economic damage are elevated, so one can treat the outcome as a binary situation and use options as defined risk to trade either scenario or to hedge long positions.  Earnings names NKE and RH are trading lower as consumers are not buying enough Air Jordans or expensive furniture, which can look for bounces or breakdowns. MAGS are all higher with largest bounces by the most down trodden PLTR, ORCL, MU which may continue as they are retail faves but bounces are potentially exit liquidity for institutions, so take care on the chase. TSLA strong as typical when the market is squeezing with SpaceX IPO another catalyst. There is USA economic data today with ADP jobs, retail sales and ISM mfg which usually are important but the war and closure of the strait is front and center so expect the market to continue to move on every tweet

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·       Stock TSLA, NEM, MU, NVDA, NKE, RH, OXY Speculative AU, CRCL, LI,   VG, EQNR
Indices GDX, ETHE, ARKK, EFA, SMH, FEZ, XLK, XME, GLD, ARKG, /CL, UNG, XLE, UUP, SLV 

S&P500 LITE, SNDK, NEM, MU, HOOD, WDC, GLW, STX, COHR, TSLA, SMCI, FCX, NKE, OXY, APA, COP, DVN, DOW, XOM
Other AU, GFI, LI, IONQ, TECK, CRCL, BCS, ASX, CDE, B, MT, VG, UL, EQNR, JD, PBR, CNQ

SPY

SPY upper weekly expected move 652 was exceeded with premarket high 656.  Call wall  653 is a level one consider for bull/bear with 650 below and 660 above. Yields are rising premarket with ADP jobs report and retail sales better than expected which may keep the Fed on the sidelines. Note PMI data at  10ET may be market moving along with war news. Tonight Trump is speaking again about the war.