.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.38% Currencies: USA$+0.36%, CAD -0.10%, YEN -0.29%, BTC/USD-3.29%, Vix:21.5

·       Events USA: USA/Iran talks went poorly, Trump threatening Hormuz blockade
Stock News: GS -3.8%, FAST-3.9% Earnings
Equity: Global indices lower after USA/Iran peace discussions were not positive, and Trump escalated by threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Reaction as expected is oil, commodities, US$, chemicals higher and equities, bonds lower. S&P is currently above overnight lows, which can be used as a reference level. The Wed gap on the ceasefire tweet is the concern with 0DTE potential support 6700, 6670. Typically, the market is mechanically supported into Wed of Opex week and should geopolitical not escalate, CTA will be buyers this week. IMO there are issues with Trump doing a blockade as naval ships are 1000km away due to missile risk and stopping ships in international waters would be an act of war. Given that there are Chinese ships carrying oil it would be a bad move by Trump. Hence potentially another tweet may be coming before next weekend, especially if market declines. GS reported premarket with ok earnings but stock is lower which is weighing on banks. Can watch for continuation lower or bounce. FAST lower with inline earnings in the industrial space.  SNDK is being added to the S&P500 so trading higher premarket. Memory and optical continue to be the new hot AI trade. MRVL call out as it continues to run and has historically been a dog but has a foot in both memory and optical interconnect and bucking the premarket weakness. Bitcoin and gold lower with US$ and yields higher is weighing on related names. Travel stocks are lower e.g. CCL, UAL and are leveraged to energy. Jet fuel supply is a growing concern in Europe so the concern is moving from higher prices to supply. MAGS are lower after a strong week with NFLX higher ahead of earnings this week and MSFT outperforming. Semis outperformance vs software is extreme and today software is outperforming by moving down less. PLTR higher and Trump was trying to pump on Fri and MSFT is outperforming the semi MAGS. Pair trade of semis vs software at some point may be an interesting idea.

·       Stock NFLX, SNDK, MRVL, OXY, NVDA, MU, GOOGL Speculative VG,  NBIS
Indices /CL, USO, UNG, XLE, US$, IBIT, ETHE, SLV, GDX, KWEB, ARKG, GLD, QTUM, SMH, ARKK, IWM, MAGS, XLK, XLF

S&P500 ON, OXY, APA, DOW, VLO, SNDK, PLTR, CCL, GS, FAST, BBY, UAL, COIN, CRJ, NEM, HOOD, DAL, MU, C
Other  RVMD, ASX, VG, EQNR, MRVL, LNG, PBR, ABVX, SKM, NBIS, CDE, MSTR, HL, CRCL, BE 

NFLX

NFLX reports earnings Thurs after the close and can potentially run into the report.  Option positioning indicates resistance at 104, 105, with acceleration above 105 with 115 and 120 next large positions. Expected move +/-6.9 or ~610 target. Option positioning is tilted to calls. IV skew is positive for call verticals if one is interested in an upside trade.