Swing Trade Ideas – April 16, 2026
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up
• Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond +0.08% Currencies: USA$+0.12% CAD +0.04% YEN +0.01% BTC/USD-0.56% Vix:20.55
•
Events USA: Fed Williams speaking; Trump says
war ending soon UK: GDP better than expected
Stock News: TSM-1% ABT-3.7% SCHW-1.5% TRV-1.5% PEP+1.3% Earnings
Equity: USA indices flattish but international higher with China and
Taiwan leading. USA indices have squeezed to the call walls and above the
weekly expected moves and the 10d move in the S&P is at the 99.7% of 10d
moves since 1950. All to say a record move from the lows since the USA/Israel
attacked Iran. The war has not ended and oil and other products remain in
deficit but short squeezes are a powerful force. Although common sense and
technicals suggest the easy money has been made, the squeeze can continue but
caution is an idea. TSM is the big name reporting with earnings beat and
guidance raised but trading lower following ASML Wed. Software had a big day
Wed and is continuing premarket and meanwhile semis are lower. This is likely
an unwind of a popular hedgefund trade, short software and long semis. Short
squeezes also evident in TSLA, AAPL moves Wed and in ARK etfs. Index volume
has been subdued in the record bounce and volatility is increasing so will be
watching for signs that the squeeze is reaching crescendo. Until then can ride
the squeeze but in the back of the mind, remembering that the Iran war is not
over and shutter of Hormuz logically has real world impacts. NFLX is the big
name reporting after the close and AA will give a glimpse into the aluminum
market
•
Stock AVGO HOOD MS IGV ASML MU NVDA Speculative IONQ SOFI AAOI
Indices IGV KWEB QTUM USO GDX ARKX ARKG
ARKK NUKZ ETHE IBIT SMH XBI
S&P500 NOW ORCL HOOD DDOG CRM APP ADBE PANW MSFT DELL ABT GLW SCHW MU CRH MU
Other OKLO HMY SOFI IONQ RKLB BIDU FIG
SAP TTE BABA TEAM RDDT ASTS U RBLX FLUT CRDO ASML AAOI
SHOP
SHOP is a laggard name that bouncing with the rest of the laggards. Option positioning indicates resistance at 135 and above 145 is a major level which can lead to acceleration. Earnings May 8 and if market can hold up and short squeeze continues there can be a run into earnings. Caveat is SHOP at risk if/when the squeeze ends.
