.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive set-up

      •        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

      •        Yields: 30Y Bond +1.24%  Currencies:  USA$-1.19% CAD +0.28% YEN +0.92%  BTC/USD+3.84%  Vix:21.7

      •        Events USA: 2 week cease fire lifting equity, bonds, metals
Stock News: DAL+12% AEHR+7.6% Earnings
Equity:  Global indices higher on news of a 2 week ceasefire based on Iran’s 10 points. Risk is Israel/USA neocons agreeing to the terms, especially Israel disengaging from Gaza/Lebanon and Iran controlling Hormuz. Macro reaction is oil and US$ lower and equities, bonds and metals higher. Major oil importers like emerging markets, Korea, China, Japan will benefit the most from lower oil prices and hence outperforming. Goldminers, space, uranium, digital assets are outperforming due to high short interest and retail interest. MAGS are all higher with MU , GOOGL, META, outperforming based on beta. Most MAGS have moved 3x daily expected move so extended and so take care chasing. Airlines and cruise are leading the S&P with DAL reporting earnings (reducing capacity growth) but high short interest due and oil sensitivity is leading to a squeeze.  Memory theme is being squeezed premarket a day after Samsung reported strong earnings with WDC, STX higher. Losers are oil companies, fertilizer (CF), chemical (DOW) but one should note that supply shortages will continue as in some cases infrastructure is damaged (e.g. Qatar nat gas), well have been turned off and sea borne supply will take many weeks to make it to destination so likely prices will remain elevated which can support the earnings. SPX has moved from negative to positive gamma which reduces volatility with 6800 a level which can be sticky. 0DTE positions 6850 and 6740 set the likely range for the day.  

      •         

      •        Stock MU UAL GOOGL AMZN GDX   USO CF    Speculative    VG EQNR
Indices   ETHE UFO GDX SLV ARKK ARKK SMH ARKX ARKG QTUM  /CL USO XLE UNG US$

S&P500 UAL DAL CCL MU SNDK HOOD TER GE COHR VRT CIEN NEM CRH APP   CF APA LYB DOW OXY COP
Other  GFI MT AU TECK CUK BE IREN BCS NBIS SOFI CRWV VG EQNR PBR CVE EC CNQ OVV LNG SHEL

XOM

XOM is a contrary idea on a day when oil is down sharply on the news of a 2 week ceasefire. There is risk of the ceasefire not lasting, damage to production and ultimately will take months for production to reopen and seaborn shipments to reach destination.  Option positions at 150 and 145 and high volume support at 150 may set a floor.  Potential candidate for a short put sell as a means to collect premium or go long through assignment. 2.5% dividend.  Earnings May 1 so some earnings risk on a longer dated put sell