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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

      •        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

      •        Yields: 30Y Bond –0.30%  Currencies:  USA$+0.07% CAD +0.10% YEN -0.27%  BTC/USD+1.15%  Vix:19.05

      •        Events USA:Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal
Stock News: CEG+1% B+.21% SATS+.35% MNDY+25%     MOS-3.5%    Earnings
Equity: USA indices are flattish premarket with Trump rejecting Iran’s peace proposal which is effectively unchanged from the start of discussion. Market reaction tepid with a tilt to the war trade i.e. oil, yields, commodities higher. Market is in euphoria mode with heavy lean into calls into this week’s option expiration and is discounting bad news and rewarding positive rumors even if not credible.  The AI/semi basket is still being bought at the expense of software. INTC is higher with some preliminary agreement with AAPL pushed by the WH. MU, SNDK and the memory bros continue to be in a gamma squeeze with the threat of a 15d Samsung strike setting up a binary event. Optical names LITE, COHR, GLW are higher premarket as part of the AI trade. Semis are showing some dispersion with NVDA, AVGO, ARM lower and QCOM, AMD, INTC lower – it looks like a buy CPU sell GPU trade which is overall net positive for semis.  Energy names are higher premarket as maybe some realizes that SoH is closed and USA and Iran positions are unchanged despite Axios tweets. Indian stocks lower as PM Modi asks people to avoid foreign trave, cut fuel and stop buying gold due to fuel shortages and high cost of  oil. Reduction of consumption will have a dampening effect on oil demand. Finally precious metals ex-gold are higher along with bitcoin which is not consistent with the war trade.  SPX is very well supported with short put sellers from 7380-7330 and short calls at 7420-7430 and would take something big like a resumption of war or an alien invasion to shake the market which is in squeeze mode. Correlation is low so expect a few strong winners and the remainder to be uninspiring.

      •        Stock INTC MOS SLV QCOM  PLTR MSFT    Speculative MRNA MNDY POET HIMX  IREN CSIQ
Indices USO UNG XLE IBIT UFO ETHE SMH QTUM SLV XLK XLU  GDX GLD MSOS ARKG FEZ XLY

S&P500 MRNA QCOM INTC MU LITE GLW AMD OXY COHR   MOS TTD PLTR ORCL GOOGL CCL MSFT

INTC

INTC is higher premarket on a story that there is a preliminary agreement with AAPL.  WH is pushing for this with goal of INTC being a USA supplier competitive with TSM. To date INTC has been a technical laggard, hence the investment by the USA govt and now the push for companies to use INTC. Jury out on whether INTC is capable.  Traders have been buying calls which is causing a gamma squeeze with IV rising with price. 130 is a key level and above can continue towards 135+.  When these trades end, it is usually fast to the downside. Levels to watch are 130, the AVWAP from premarket high and below look for the the Fri closing price and the AVWAP tied to Fri open. Look for bounces or breakdown off those levels