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Swing Trade Ideas – May 12, 2026

Date: May 12 2026

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond –0.28%  Currencies:  USA$+0.33% CAD -0.22% YEN -0.2%  BTC/USD-1.67%  Vix:19.7
• Events USA:CPI 830ET
  Stock News: QUBT+30% SE+10.5%      ASTS -10.6% HIMS-14% AG-3.9%     Earnings Korea govt discussed special tax on memory companies due to massive profit, Samsung potential strike weighing on memory names . Cerebras IPO is today, which may suck some capital from NVDA
  Equity: USA indices lower premarket with semis and MAGS weighing on market cap weighted indices. Some rotation into lagging value sectors. Oil higher as Iran has kept the key points despite Trump declaring they are close to an agreement. Now that 30y is approaching 5% and SPX at all time highs he is saying that the ceasefire is on life support and may resume bombing.  CPI will be released premarket which is usually market moving but Trump China meeting Wed is likely more important. *** CPI was hot but market didnt care ***  Trump is taking CEOs from AAPL BLK GS META to China but not NVDA which is interesting as China probably only want chips from USA.  Korea govt floating a windfall tax on memory companies is leading to weakness in memory names and leading to the weakness in the parabolic semi group.  Iran situation remains the same and the latest in the saga is Trump saying the Iranian points which are unchanged since the original ceasefire proposal are unacceptable, hence the war trade i.e. oil higher, US$ higher, commodities higher and metals lower. Silver surged Mon but now lower. The breadth of the S&P continues to be weak with tech driving the market recently and if tech weakens today, look for a rotation into other sectors like industrial or financials. SPX should be well supported 7430-7330 which means that dips will likely be bought. Cerebras IPO today will be a popular name with retail.
  
• Stock OXY XOM USO  MU NVDA ASTS    Speculative QUBT SE  HIMS AIPO GDX
  Indices /CL XLE UUP XLP XLF XLU  COIN SWKS TSLA NEM CRWD CIEN NXPI CAT TXN ADI CNC CMI

S&P500  Q OXY XOM VLO CSCO CVX HAL  SLV ETHE SMH MSOS GDX IBIT XLK AIPO QQQ UNG MAGS UNG ARK

NVDA

NVDA lower premarket along with most semis. Cerebras will be IPOing today which is a wafer scale chip company some view as an NVDA competitor.  NVDA has been in a gamma squeeze with IV rising with price and will be watching whether it continues today or not. With earnings next week, likely monkeys will be buyers of dips but question is if dip will deepen.  217.5, 215 are support levels and 220 is call wall resistance and hence target on upside moves. In particular will be interesting how NVDA trades once Cerebras begins trading i.e. whether NVDA moves lower.