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Swing Trade Ideas – May 15, 2026

Date: May 15 2026

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond –1.06%  Currencies:  USA$+0.27% CAD -0.14% YEN -0.19%  BTC/USD-1.15%  Vix:19.25
• Events USA: Retail sales 830ET
  Stock News:FIG+9.4%   AMAT-0.9% POET-8% NU-4% LUNR–2.9%      Earnings
  Equity: Global indices lower premarket as oil, yields and US$ have moved higher. Catalysts may be lack of substantial progress between Trump-XI or Trump statements increasing risk of attacks renewing or monthly option expiration. The option expiration today is heavily call weighted and the sectors and stocks which have moved the most are pulling back. The AI, MAGS, semi, space, quantum sectors are lower but the software sector is flat to up. MAGS are led by laggards MSFT, NFLX with NVDA and TSLA lagging.  Korean market is lower with potential Samsung strike which is hitting the memory names including MU. Korean traders are aggressive buyers of USA tech so a 6% drop in the KOSPI affects USA tech. The move higher in the US$ and yields is weighing on metals with gold, silver, copper, iron reversing hard premarket.  USA indices are below daily expected moves hence continuation possible. Key level I am watching is SPX 7400 (SPY 438) which is an obvious support level and below 7375 is the next level.  Not shocking that there is a pullback due to the call concentration expiring.  Next week the slate is cleared and NVDA is reporting earnings so question is whether the AI/Semi euphoria resumes. The S&P positioning remains supportive down to 7300 so barring a resumption of major geopolitical conflict the odds favor the buying continuing especially if vol ramps into the close on the risk of Trump bombing this weekend and doesnt attack.  One can use butterflies to trade a bounce next week on the no bomb meme or alternatively flies for the bomb. The yield enhancement ETFs e.g. QYLD or individual stock names e.g. NVDY are rolling short calls that are ITM. Typically they close on Thurs, which is positive and sell calls on Fri (today) which is bearish but come next week it’s back to normal. So potential (but no guarantee) that dip buy can work with defined risk trades. Market breadth has been weak, yields are rising and geopolitical risk has not reduced so risk remains but market monkeys may not have thrown in the towel yet.

• Stock NVDA TSLA CSCO BA     KWEB AMD INTC   Speculative POET DOCS LUNR
  Indices /CL USO UNG XLE US$  SLV GDX SMH XME AIPO XLK KWEB ETHE ARKX QQQ

S&P500  NOW INTC GLW AMD SMCI MU HOOD NVDA ORCL CSCO AVGO TSLA F GOOGL AMZN SNDK COIN
Other  MICC FIG NOW DXYZ  POET WOLF MRVL NVTS INFO AAOI FCEL INTC HL ASTS GLW IONQ RKLB

NVDA

NVDA reports earnings next week and premarket pulling back into a volume gap. One can consider a bounce trade into next week for a run into earnings using a fly or spread targeting Mon or Wed expiration. Volume support 228-225 and one can look for a reversal  in that zone. Failure to hold 225 brings 220 into play. Note that yield enhancement ETFs selling calls today is bearish potentially today but is not an issue next week which will depend more on any potential geopolitical events and any spillover from the pullback in the KOSPI.