.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative set-up

      •        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

      •        Yields: 30Y Bond +0.03%  Currencies:  USA$+0.04% CAD +0.04% YEN -0.03%  BTC/USD-0.23%  Vix:20.3

      •        Events USA: weekly jobs data Canada: CPI
Stock News:T+0.2%  HD-0.3%       Earnings
Equity: USA indices lower premarket with QQQ leading to the downside. AI basket and semis continuing to weaken ahead of NVDA earnings as technically stretched names like memory (MU SNDK) continue to weaken. Software (IGV) is again outperforming semis and a popular hedgefund long/short pairs trade may be unwinding. MSFT is leading MAGS along with NFLX and GOOGL and TSLA, NVDA are lagging. Oil is higher despite Trump backing off or delaying from his latest threat to attack Iran. Market seems numb to Trump’s threats and Tacos.  Metals continue lower as high oil prices are leading to higher bond yields and a stronger US$.  SPX positioning continues to be supportive with 7350, 7330 support and 7400 resistance. Support is from short put sellers indicating a lack of concern for a large down move. IV is elevated in advance of the NVDA earnings which is the big  event Wed night. S&P correlation is low so if semis/AI continue to be weak and index holds, look for money to rotate into other sectors which now appear to be software

      •        Stock NOW MSFT GOOGL   MU NVDA   Speculative AS PATH NBIS
Indices USO UNG IGV XLE KWEB US$  SLV SMH AIPO Qtum xlk qqq arkx gdx iwm ethe

S&P500  NOW BKR SNDK MU SMCI AMD INTC TSLA
Other  RLAY AS ZETA PATH FIG CRWV LI NBIS IONQ IREN POET RKLB RGTI NOK MARA CRCL SMR ASTS

MSFT

Hedgefunds have been short software and long semis and there are signs of a reversal of the trade. MSFT is the largest software name and approaching a breakout. Calls are building at 430, 440, 450 which are potential upside targets. MSFT is still below the falling 200sma so if the move is just a short squeeze  the risk is that pops will be sold. A move above 430 would provide greater confidence that it’s more than a short squeeze.