.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive  set-up

      •        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

      •        Yields: 30Y Bond +0.26%  Currencies:  USA$+0.02% CAD -0.07% YEN -0.0%  BTC/USD-0.23%  Vix:20.3

      •        Events USA 20y bond auction 13ET; Fed meeting minutes 14ET UK: CPI lower than expected
Stock News:VFC+3.7% TJX+3% TGT+1.3%   LOW-2% ADI-0.3%       Earnings
Equity: USA indices and global indices ex-Japan are higher premarket. Tech leading with semis and AI names higher with NVDA reporting earnings after the close. Oil lower is a catalyst for a pullback in yields which have been pressuring equities. The 20Y auction at 13ET and the FOMC meeting minutes at 14ET can impact the bond market and hence the equity market. MAGs are led by NVDA which is reporting after the close with TSLA higher but MSFT lower which suggests the long semi short software trade may be back. MU, SNDK higher as the Samsung workers may go on strike but would caution that the Korean govt may block the strike.  Set-up premarket is risk-on with ARKs, bitcoin, TSLA higher but remains to be seen whether it’s a morning pump to suck in retail or whether can continue past 10am. SPX 0DTE large position at 7415 which is an upside target where look for reversal or acceleration above and 7375 is a lower level to watch. NVDA is the big event after the close with a 5% earnings move priced in. The SPY IV is elevated into the NVDA print and will fall post the report which can lift the market should NVDA not miss. Caveat for NVDA is option traders are leaning hard on calls so absent a blow-out, move may be muted to lower but there is the potential for a runaway move.

      •         

      •        Stock NVDA MU INTC   MSFT USO  Speculative POET AIPO NUKZ
Indices SLV SMH AIPO GDX XLK ETHE XME IBIT QTUM XBI ARKK USO XLE KWEB IGV NUKZ

S&P500  INTC MU QCOM AMD SMCI SNDK NVDA TSLA CCL NOW
Other  IMVT POET MRVL STM VFC IREN OKLO QBTS SMR NVTS NOK VIAV BILI LI

NVDA

NVDA reports after the close with an expected move of +/-13. Option traders are leaning into calls with large positions up to 250.  Skew is high with OTM calls bid up relative to ATM indicating trader bullishness. NVDA has moved lower post earnings in recent reports even though beat earnings so no guarantee. Butterfly trades or diagonals are a way to take advantage of the IV and vertical trades can take advantage of the skew.  Index IV is elevated due to NVDA earnings and should fall post reports assuming NVDA is inline or better which can provide a lift independent of NVDA. Caveat that a NVDA miss will be negative for the popular AI trade and market in general.