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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.11% Currencies: USA$+0.08%, CAD -0.06%, YEN -0.58%, BTC/USD+1.22%, Vix:19.55

·       Events USA: ISM services 945ET;
Stock News: PFE+2%, BUD+6.7%, COIN+3.8%, ETN -4.6%, SHOP-6.6%, PLTR-3%, ON-4.5% Earnings 
Equity: Global indices are higher with oil lower, with a lack of war escalation overnight.  Tech continues to be in favor, and monkeys are still squeezing memory (MU SNDK WDC) and semis ahead of AMD earnings tonight. Software continues to bounce, and ORCL shorts are still covering. PLTR is lower on earnings despite a beat and raise, and premarket, the monkeys are buying the dip. SHOP lower despite earnings beat, watch for reaction. ON semi lower on an EPS beat but had run up ahead of the report. MAGS are higher ex-AAPL but in line with QQQ, and NVDA is lagging, and AMZN is leading. Bitcoin continues to move higher, and related names like COIN and HOOD are trading higher. COIN is laying off 14% of staff which is boosting stock along with an improvement in bitcoin.  Generally, the set-up premarket is risk-on with IWM leading, TSLA, ARKK higher. Potentially short covering and given the tenuous situation in the middle east one should take care. SPX is well supported due to positioning. There appears to be little appetite for hedging and as evident Mon, put sellers are stepping up on dips. SPX 7180 is a level to watch with risk if breaks. AMD will be market moving as the semi space has been a major driver and historically, AMD has had poor earnings reactions. NVDA reporting next week is the more important event.

·       Stock MU, COIN, AMD, PLTR, /CL Speculative OUST, CRCL
Indices GDX, FEZ, IBIT, AIPO, SMH, SLV, ETHE, QTUM, GLD, XBI, XLK, /CL, UNG 

S&P500 MU, COIN, INTC, HOOD, ORCL, WDC, NOW, AMD, SNDK, PFE, SMCI, ON, PLTR
Other WOLF, OUST, CRCL, MSTR, ERIC, SBSW, SAP, ARM, AAOI, CIFR, QBTS, NBIS, XNDU

AMD

AMD is reporting earnings after the close. Stock has risen 77% since the beginning of April with the euphoria for agentic AI. AMD is up 3X since prior Q1 earnings and earnings are estimated to be 30% higher so bulk of the stock increase has been a revaluation. AMD has missed earnings estimate the last 4 reports and was lower 8/12 prior reports. Expected move is +/-30. With IV 113% one can consider diagonal strategy to sell the elevated vol. Skew is still tilted to calls but has backed off from extreme bullishness. AMD has the potential for outsized moves on earnings so need to be careful with neutral strategies.