.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative  set-up

      •        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

      •        Yields: 30Y Bond –0.25%  Currencies:  USA$+0.05% CAD +0.16% YEN -0.1%  BTC/USD-2%  Vix:20.3

      •        Events USA CPI 830ET CDN: BOC statement

      •        Stock News:IMOS-1.8% CHWY+5.9%    Earnings
Equity:USA and global indices lower after USA attacked Iran and Iran responded which is the 8th attack since the start of the ceasefire. Oil is slightly higher and is either buying the ongoing Trump tweets that close to a deal or becoming numb. CPI report premarket is media focus with a reaction expected but general expectation is YoY higher. Premarket setup is weakness in the leading semi/AI trade and similar to Tues, may see wild moves. Software and semi are both weaker than the QQQ  with MU leading semis lower and ORCL which reports earnings after the close leading software to the downside. Tues the market rotated into value sectors while momentum was sold and potential for that today however a short squeeze in tech is a real possibility so stay on your toes. SPX 7300 is the put wall and can be used as a pivot level with a move of +/- 80 possible. Aside from CPI, Trump tweets are the main catalyst and algos are now programmed to buy on “close to a deal” and sell on “ strikes coming”. The price action Tues is indicative of liquidation and short squeezes so take care.

Stock CVX LMT RTX KO     MU NVDA ORCL   Speculative CHWY SMCI
Indices UNG USO XLE MSOS XLP   GDX SMH UFO IGV XLK ETHE GLD ARKK QTUM IBIT AIPO SLV

S&P500 MSFT TSLA PLTR HOOD NOW INTC ORCL AMD MU SMCI

Other CHWY FLNC   SMCI UMC NVTS BNIS MRVL RDW MU POET QBTS RKLB ASTS

ORCL

ORCL reports after the close with an expected move of +/- 25. ORCL has moved outside the expected move 10/16 times which is greater than average.  ORCL has been under pressure due to large debt to pay for AI data centers but traders are positioned bullishly with calls pricier than puts and OTM calls pricier than ATM.  IV rank 93% is supportive for low cost butterflies for a directional trade. The elevated IV is also supportive for diagonal structures for a directional trade. Given the elevated call skew, ORCL will need to blow out expectations to move above 230 but given positioning, potential for a large move above 230 towards 250. There is a lack of large put positions to cushion the downside on a miss. Look for IGV names to move with ORCL e.g. MSFT.