Swing Trade Ideas – July 16, 2026
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong –neutral set-up
• Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond –0.34% Currencies: USA$+0.07% CAD +0.04% YEN -0.11% BTC/USD-1.27% Vix:16.7
•
Events USA: Retail sales, Philly Fed 830ET
Stock News TSM-4.6% GE-3.75% USB-1% UNH+6.15% JBHT+5.3% Earnings
Comments USA indices lower premarket with QQQ lagging due to
weakness in semi/AI names. Korea continuing lower as Samsung and Hynix unwind
which spills over to MU SNDK, and WDC and to the general semi group. TSM, the
largest semi mfg lower post earnings which were good but margin missed by 1%.
Rotation into software and hyperscalers continues with MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX
higher to compensate for NVDA and TSLA lower. China names are continuing higher
with BIDU announcing that working with AAPL and AAPL approved by China for as a
generative artificial intelligence provider. AAPL has been soaring in recent
days perhaps with notion that China sales will increase. *** USA retail sales
inline and core retail sales weaker; Philly Fed better than expected and
continuing jobless claims lower. *** WTIC 80.6 rising premarket as SoH
uncertainty increasing and higher oil can counter the lower CPI/PPI which has
led to lower probability of Fed rate cuts. SPX 7525 is the largest 0DTE
support level and 7560 potential resistance. SPX is still well supported as
long as > 7480
•
Stock BABA ASML MS ELV MU NVDA Speculative AEHR
LION CHKP
Indices KWEB XLV /CL UNG IGV XLP MSOS
XLC DRAM SMH ETHE SLV AIPO XLK IBIT ARKK
S&P500 UNH ABT CVS CRM SNDK WDC COHR MU GLW MRVL LRCX AMAT INTC KLAC DELL GE
Other CMPS XPEV SHAZ BIDU RKT ASTS UMC STM TSM NOK BE NBIS ARM PL
NVTS RKLB OUST WULF CRCL
NFLX
NFLX reports after the close today. Expected move +/- 6. Option positioning is tilted to calls with IV percentile 100%. Option support at 65 and potential to squeeze above 75. Potential strategies are butterflies for this week or diagonal trades to take advantage of elevated IV this week. One could also consider longer dated OTM vertical to trade a squeeze.
