.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.14% Currencies: USA$+0.04%, CAD +0.11%, YEN -0.08%, BTC/USD-2.2%, Vix:19.2

·       Events USA: Consumer confidence 10ET; Bond auction 13ET

·       Stock News APLD+2.2%, NUE+0.86%, KO+3.8%, BA+1.35%, UPS+1%, NVTS-9.6%, GLW-16%, PYPL-1.5% Earnings
Comments: Global indices weaker as unwind of AI, semis continues. Korean index continues to break down as memory names fall. IMO this is a combination of unwind of crowded, leveraged trades and realization that China is competitive in semi and AI technology.  S&P has continued to rotate as hedge funds unwind pairs trades of long AI, short software, with some substantial moves Mon in some high short interest names. MAGS are led by MSFT, but all are higher except TSLA and NVDA.  Positive earnings reaction to KO, BA, APLD, NUE and negative  GLW, NVTS, PYPL. GLW -16% with an earnings beat, but stock peak was +300% since Jan 1 and revenue +17% Y-Y so seeing unwind in the excess. KO rev growth +7% Y-Y but higher on a beat and likely a rotation into staples as AI trade unwinds. SPX is dancing at the 7400 key level and as long as it holds the rotation game can continue. SPX 0DTE 7410 is a pivot level with 7450 potential resistance with long calls > 7410 and  7385-7350 potential support. SPX put wall has shifted lower to 7300 is now a lower target. Consumer confidence at 10ET and the bond auction 13ET may be market-moving, but major events this week are the hyperscaler earnings reports and any SoH updates. 

·        

Stock MSFT, KO, WMT, GLW, SNDK, MU, NVDA, TSLA Speculative FIG, PATH, NVTS, AAOI
Indices XLP, XLV, XLRE, IGV, XLF, TLT, XLU, DRAM, ETHE, SMH, IBIT, SLV, XLK, UNG, GLD, GDX, /CL, ARKK

S&P500 KO, WMT, NOW, NFLX, BA, MSFT, NKE, T, ORCL, GLW, SNDK, WDC, MU, INTC, MRVL, AMD, LRCX, AMD, KLAC, SMCI, PLTR, LRCX, QCOM, HOOD, AVGOTSLA, PYPL
Other UL, CORZ, APLD, JD, PATH, FIG, UMC, NVTS, AMKR, BCS, ASX, AXTI, AAOI, STM, BE, CRDO, ASML, BMNR, CRCL, RIOT 

MSFT

MSFT reports earnings Wed AMC. Software is trading inverse to semis and MSFT is the largest holding of the IGV. Option positioning is call heavy so potential to squeeze higher however the trading pattern is to rise in the morning and sell into the close which smells like institutional distribution. Above 395, potential for 400  and 390, 385  on a pullback with a +/-10 daily move.