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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.2% Currencies: USA$-0.01%, CAD +0.06%, YEN +0.11%, BTC/USD+1%, Vix:19.0

·       Events USA: FOMC 14ET 36% probability of rate increase

·       Stock News BSX+2.5%, GEH+6%, GNRC+3.3%, STX+5.5%, F+4.8%,   VRT-11.9%, HUM-6.9%, FVRR-14.6%, LMND-8%, V-85%, KLAC-8%, PG-3%, SOFI-4.8% Earnings
Comments: USA indices slightly higher premarket despite oil higher with missile attacks overnight. FOMC rate decision today with 36% chance of a rate increase, and MSFT, META earnings after the close is leading to high volatility and expectation of a larger move today. Korean market hit a circuit breaker on a drop caused by Hynix reaction to an earnings miss and a capex cut. KLAC lower post-earnings with lower end of guidance below consensus. STX higher post earnings is a positive for the memory/storage space. Net effect is MU and semis slightly lower, and reaffirmation that the darlings that have driven the indices higher are doing well still however, price has overrun to the upside, and there is selling on good results. MAGS are slightly higher with GOOGL leading ahead of earnings reports. Focus is now on hyperscaler spending and free cash flow, and likely increased capex will be punished and lower capex rewarded at the expense of the semi companies, which are dealing with distribution.   Post earnings names to watch: + F STX GEH  – VRT HUM SOFI PG V. SPX 0DTE indicates upside pivot 7475 and downside pivot 7430, 7400 but really little support until 7325. Post today, there is negative gamma all the way down to 7000. With SPX positioned with negative gamma, there is heightened risk of large moves in either direction depending on FOMC reaction and earnings reaction. Will be an interesting end of the month:)

·        

Stock USO, F, GEHC, MU, SOFI, KLAC, HUM Speculative BE, GFS, VRT, FVRR
Indices USO, XLE, KWEB, IBIT, SLV, GDX, MAGS, XLV, DRAM, ETHE, SMH, UNG, XLI, TLT, FEZ, AIPO, NUKZ,

S&P500 TER, F, STX, WDC, BSX, INTC, CSGP, VRT, KLAC, FLEX, PG, AMAT
Other BE, GFS, HAYW, BP, TEVA, XPEV, AVTR, WULF, LMND, VFC, SOFI, ASX, ALM, UMC, AAL

MSFT

MSFT reports after the close. Expected move is +/-27. Option positioning is bullish with elevated IV. Due to the positioning, potential for an outsized move higher on a positive reaction, with 430, 450 potential upside targets and downside potential to 350. Butterfly strategies or diagonals can be used to trade directionally.