.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral  set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -1.13%  Currencies:  USA$-0.19% CAD -0.03% YEN +0.31%  BTC/USD+1.68%  Vix:19.75

·       Events USA: PCE 830ET  Europe: GDP improving and better than expected but UE higher

·       Stock News TT+3% MSFT+9% LRCX+7.6% SBUX+6.8% PGY+10% CMG+8% SBUX+5.5%   META-7.5%  NCLH-8% CVNA-6.3%     Earnings
Comments USA indices are rebounding post the move lower post the FOMC meeting.  Reaction to FOMC leaving rates unchanged was in increase in 10Y yield to 4.7% which is a 1 year high and the US$ lower. WTI is ~85 despite Trump threats for large attacks. QQQ is leading the bounce with the AI complex rejuvenated by MSFT, META capex forecasts. MSFT stock has moved above the expected move with a beat and META below the expected move on a miss. AMZN which reports earnings after the close lifting on the back of MSFT Azure revenue growth.  SBUX and CMG higher on beating expectations and can watch for continuation or reversion. QCOM lower on reduced guidance. Dispersion trade is still active so move higher in tech leads to lower staples, healthcare but may also be related to higher yields negative for dividend names. Software is flat with MSFT higher which means reversion in some of the names which bounced with the drop in semis. Question is whether the AI/Semi trade has renewed life or it’s just a oversold bounce. US$ lower post FOMC is providing a catalyst for bitcoin, metals to bounce with caveat that US$ can rise if Trump decides to attack Iran as threatened.  *** USA GDP Q-Q 1.5% vs 2%; PCE Y-Y 3.7% Personal Income m-m  0.2% vs 0.3% Personal consumption M-M 0.4%  Reaction: 10Y yield lower,  US$ lower *** SPX has limited support at 7350 with a large 7300/7280 put spread below; Above there are calls to 7450 so potential to bounce but if the bounce doesnt come quickly the calls can weigh on price later in the day. 7400 is the highest concentration of calls and potential resistance. SPY 735 is the put wall and can be used as pivot level today. QQQ is well below the 680 put wall which is the upside target with 660 support.

·        

Stock MSFT AMZN SBUX CMG   META NOW    Speculative  NBIS BE  CVNA
Indices  AIPO SMH DRAM XLK QTUM GDX ETHE IBIT QQQ SLV MSOS USO XLC XLP XLV UNG 

S&P500 BAX MSFT LRCX SBUX SNDK KLAC VRT COHR AMD AMZN   CVNA META NCLH QCOM NOW NKE NFLX
Other TAL PGY NBIS IREN BE CIFR CRWV AAOI APLD AAOI  SIRI HLN FIG

AMZN

AMZN reports after the close with expected move +/-14.9.  Above 240 potential to squeeze to 250. 260 and  200 is the put wall and potential lower extreme. AMZN is higher premarket with MSFT posting good cloud revenue but focus will be on capex spending plans and free cash flow.  One can consider butterfly or diagonal strategies for directional trades. AMZN has made 1.5 standard deviation moves historically so take care with neutral trades