.

Swing Trade Ideas – October 15, 2026

Date: Oct 15, 2026

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong –neutral  set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Oil, natgas, Gasoline  AGGS,  Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond +1.32%  Currencies:  USA$-0.42% CAD +0.28% YEN +0.2%  BTC/USD-0.78%  Vix:17.95
• Events USA: PPI 830ET  
  Stock News SCHW+0.9%   TSM-3.4% IBKR-3.8% PLD-2.3% BNY-2.4% ERIC-1.3%
• Comments USA large cap indices are weaker premarket post Wed drop and ahead of PPI. Wed reaction to a higher CPI was ultimately long yields lower, semis/AI/MAGS lower and 2.5 standard deviation moves higher in staples and healthcare. Premarket the Korean and Japanese markets were lower overnight as tech continues to be sold. TSM reported solid earnings and guidance and is trading lower which IMO indicates that the tech unwind is continuing.  MAGS are led by AAPL, which is a safety trade with the remainder lower.  It looks like a textbook risk off set-up with bonds and defensives higher and growth, high beta lower but it may be an unwind in positioning rather than a deliberate rotation. The debt concerns for AI companies like CRWV, ORCL, Softbank are increasing with ORCL CDS increasing by 10% in one day. The AI spending boom relies on credit expansion and bond insurance is increasing which raises concerns that the grandiose spending plans for the future will be implemented. SPX 0DTE range 7750-7650 expected. Wed move was well beyond the expected move as 0DTE put sellers kept getting run over. QQQ is below 725 put wall and SPY is above 765 put wall which are important levels to watch. Below put wall, selling can accelerate
  *** PPI above consensus: Reaction: SPY initial spike below put wall and bounce; TLT higher; Gold lower
  
  Stock   AAPL WMT NKE PFE MU DRAM VST   Speculative   CRWV NBIS
  Indices SLV GDX TLT XLP XLV GLD XRT XLRE XLF XLB  DRAM EWY ETHE SMH AIPO ARKK XLK QTUM

S&P500 WMT XYZ PEP KO NKE PFE MCD NEM VZ  WDC SNDK MU LITE MRVL BE VST MRVL

 

TLT

TLT has been a long term downtrend and bounced despite CPI and PPI higher likely due to an unwind in short positions or a risk-off reaction.  The call wall is 80 which can act as resistance or accelerate above towards the 50sma and then 82-85. Skew is slightly tilted to calls and IV is elevated so call spreads are a strategy if one thinks the move can continue. Caveat is if this is a short term rotation, TLT can easily reverse course so pay attention to the 80 level.