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Swing Trade Ideas – October 21, 2026

Date: Oct 21, 2026

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup- Pre-730ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong –slight negative  set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Oil, natgas, Gasoline  AGGS,  Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond +0.12%  Currencies:  USA$-0.00% CAD +0.1% YEN +0.15%  BTC/USD+1.1%  Vix:18.3
• Events USA:20Y Bond auction 13ET CDN: CPI 830ET
  Stock News SPCX+7% COF+2.7%     PM-2.5% NFLX-6.7% ISRG-5.3% UAL-0.5% TMO-3.3% ABT-3.4% T-5% DHR-4.8% Earnings
• Comments USA large cap indices are higher with Semi/AI names bouncing on SPCX earnings forecasts reinvigorating the AI dream and burning the fur of the bears. MAGS are led by NVDA with a move well above the expected move. Dispersion is still active so large moves in the semi/AI trade means that other names need to fall so GOOGL META AAPL are lower. TSLA is higher since it tends to trade with SPCX due to Elon effect. NFLX lower with a forecast cut as are several healthcare names despite earnings beats which is likely  due to the strong run into earnings. Oil is higher was middle east situation tension increasing and USA moving another aircraft carrier and more marines into the region which is in theory not positive for the global economy. Since AI/Semis are lifting the market and SPCX is the catalyst what is critical is whether the market uses the pops as a selling opportunity or whether the animal spirits are reinvigorated. Elon provided aggressive capex plans which will require additional capital raises which doesnt mitigate the existing AI related debt concerns. I would expect short covering to last until 1030 and look to see whether the pops have legs. SPX 7700 remains a useful bull/bear line. Breadth likely weak as AI/semi will be sucking up most of the capital
  
  Stock  SPCX NVDA SMCI MU    NFLX ABT PM     Speculative   SMCI BE 
  Indices DRAM EWY UFO AIPO NUKZ ARKX SMH ETHE  UNG KWEB XLV XLC XLP ARKG XLRE SLV XLRE

S&P500 SMCI DELL BE SNDK MU HOOD INTC NVDA MRVL AMD ORCL   NFLX T ABT DHR

META

META reports after the close. Stock has pulled back after the MUSE related bounce. Will be important for the AI ecosystem. Expected move +/- 32. IV 199% for this week and 55% for Nov is a setup for both butterflies this week or double calendar/diagonals to take advantage of the IV crush this week. Skew is leaning to puts which can lead to a larger upside move on positive results but also potentially larger move lower on negative. Quite possible that the AI conglomeration will move in lockstep based on Zuck’s forecast.