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Swing Trade Idea – September 21, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields lower

•US$ +.4% EUR -.51% YEN -.32% GBP +.24%

•News: USA: FOMC rate decision 14ET  Russia: Mobilizes more troops

•Stocks: GIS +2% beat & +guide,  COTY +4% +guidance; MU, WDC downgrade; TELL -5%  pulled offering; Russia conflict concerns boosting defense, fertilizer, energy

•General: Leading: XLE XOP GDX IWM XLF Lagging: China Internet, Airlines

•Indices: Global indices mixed ahead of FOMC release.  SPY rising since 3ET above 385 gamma level with 390  resistance and 380 strong support. QQQ below 290 gamma level (resistance) and above 285 gamma support. VIX 27 implies 1.7% move today. FOMC leads to elevated volatility with potential for equity to move higher post 1430ET if FED does not surprise and volatility drops. A negative surprise leading to SPY < 380 can lead to a large downdraft. SPY expected move today is +/- 5.5. Some signs of life in short squeeze names which can run if market reacts positively to FOMC

•Stocks to watch  GIS LMT OXY MOS  BABA CC  Spec Names HL  BRZE HKD

Pre-800ET

Earnings GIS

Indices XLE XOP /btc GDX GLD IWM ICLN TLT XLF KWEB JETS /6e

S&P500 LMT DVN MRO FANG AP OXY AP LHX SLB HAL RTX MU WDC LUV CSCO CCL RCL NCLH

IWM PBF AR BTU TALO OVV RRC MGY RUN SAVA ORA

WSB RTX PLUG F SPCE SOFI CCJ BABA NIO TSLA

Trade Idea: LMT
Defense stocks are gaining strength today with Russia increasing troops in Ukraine.  LMT signaled TRP buy signal Tues with potential to increase 5% to target 1. LHX, GD, RTX, NOC are other names in the space. Premarket high 434 and currently 428. Would look for pullback and base on a shorter term chart like 1hr for a long.