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  • Swing Trade Idea – February 13, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Negative equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.05% Currencies:  USA  -.1% 

    ·         News: USA: CPI 830ET UK: UE rate 3.8% vs 4%  JPY: Tool orders y/y -14% EUR: ZEW sentiment 25 vs 21
    Stocks:
     CDNS -8%, LSCC -5.8%, TDC -13%, HAS -11%, MAR -2.8%, SHOP -8.6%, DDOG -7.4%, GFS -4%,  WM +2.9%, ZI +19%, BRKR +5%, LDOS +2.6% eps
    Overview: USA SPY 499  support 497.7 495 and resistance 504.3 505.  SPY expected move +/- 3.3 QQQ 432.3 with resistance  440 439.6  and support  431.1 430; expected move +/- 4.3. USA indices are lower premarket with IWM outperforming and QQQ lagging. Monday NYSE breadth was strong however MAG7 and AI names were sold and premarket looks like continuation. GS high short interest basket was up 4% Monday. Macro factors (pre-CPI) are supportive with long yields lower, US$ lower however oil higher is supportive to inflation. CPI will be market moving with usual reaction to a higher print: bonds and equities lower and converse. Implied volatility is elevated and should daily expected moves hold, potential for bounce. QQQ is the risk index with QQQ 430 an important level to hold.  Breaches of daily expected moves can lead to larger moves. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (504.3-497.7), QQQ (439.6-431.1), IWM (207.7-198.3), SPX(5054.5-4989). 

    Stocks to watch:
    KO, NEM, NVDA, SHOP, DDOG, SMH, Spec Names: CLSK, SMCI

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings:   ANET, CAR, CDNS, GT, LSCC, SBLK, TDC, WM, ZI, BIIB, BRKR, DDOG, HAS, KO, SHOP, TAP, WCC,
    Indices:
    VXX, USO, XLE, GLD, GDX, TLT, euro, SMH, faangmt, XLK, /btc, ARKK, FDN, IGV, XLY, FEZ

    S&P500: KO, HAS, CDNS, ANET, MAR, ETSY, MU, PYPL, MSFT, UBER
    Movers: ZI, TRIP, GCT, KO, FRO, SNAP, BE, GLBE, PARA, VKTX, RXRX, FUTU, TDC, HAS, SHOP, CDNS, ANET, DDOG, ARM, LSCC, INMD, GFS






    Trade Idea: IWM

    IWM is reversing on the CPI print with the bottom of the daily expected move 198.3 a level to watch. Premarket low 197.9 is a level which can be used for a fade. Above 198.3 potential to bounce to 199.5 with the notion that the rotation can continue. Top of weekly expected move 203.3

     

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