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  • Swing Trade Idea – March 8, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Slight Negative global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.18%  Currencies:  USA$  -.01% 

    ·         News: USA:Non-farm payrolls 830 ET  CDN: Jobs report JPN: Household spending -6.3% y/y
    Stocks:
       IOT+14%, DOCU+16%, GPS+8%,   AVGO -1.5%, MRVL -5.7%, COST -4%, MDB -8.5%,  eps
    Overview: USA SPY 514.3,  support 513 511 510 and resistance  515 518 520.  SPY expected move +/- 3.35. QQQ 444.8 with resistance,  445 450  and support  440 437 ; expected move +/-5.79. USA indices are down slightly ahead of the USA jobs report at 830ET. Semis are again bid despite AVGO providing a weaker forecast after company mentioned future growth in AI which reversed NVDA TSM SMCI. COST missed revenue which may weigh on retailers. MDB provided poor guidance which is weighing on software including MSFT. MAG7 are mixed with  NVDA again leading and supporting market cap weighted indices. Macro is bullish ahead of the pivotal jobs report with yields lower and USS$ lower. US$ and yields have been falling and risk is a move higher on a strong report. IV is elevated into the print, which is a catalyst to move indices higher on an inline report.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (518.2-511.5),  QQQ (451.3-439.7), IWM (210.3-203.6), SPX(5190.9-5123.9).  SPX Call wall (resistance) shifted to 5200 and Put Wall (support) to 5040.
    Stocks to watch
     NVDA, AMD, GPS, INTC, TSLA, COST, AVGO, MRVL, Spec Names  VKTX, SMCI, IOT, CVNA 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings  CIEN, KR, BURL, BJ, BILI, CNSW, INFN, DSGX, YPF
    Indices
    VIX, GDX, YEN, GLD, TLT, BITI, GDX, XLP, DIA, XLF, IWM, SPY 

    S&P500 BIIB, NVDA, TSLA, INTC, MU, C, COST, AVGO
    Movers IOT, DOCU, GPS, CVNA, UBS,  NVDA, VKTX, GOGL, LI, SMCI, AU, INTC, S, MU,  AMLX, PBR, MDB, MRVL, COST, NVO, ASX, AVGO, ASML, CNHI

     

    Trade Idea: TSLA

    TSLA is a straddle idea. Long > 182.5 with target 185 and potential to squeeze higher above. Fade < 180 with target 175. Potential bounce today as weekly puts close or if market levitates post jobs report.

     

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