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  • Swing Trade Idea – April 30, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral-negative  global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.05%  Currencies:  USA$  +.24%, Vix: -.45%

    ·         NewsEUR : GDP and CPI above expectations CDN: GDP 830ET USA: Employee Cost index 830ET; Consumer confidence 10ET
    Stocks:
    HSBC+4.4%, THC+10%, PYPL+4.6%, LLY+6.5%, MMM+6.4%, ST+19%,  CCJ -3%, MCD -0.7%, KO -.06%, GEHC-7.5%, COUR-13.8%,  EPS
    Overview: USA SPY 508.2  support 508 505  and resistance 510 512.5, SPY expected move +/- 2.4., QQQ 430.9 with resistance,  433  435 and support 430 428.9; expected move +/-3.9. USA indices are lower premarket as long rates continue to rise post Treasury QRA announcement Monday. Small caps are most sensitive hence leading to downside. Long yields and US$ higher is a negative macro set-up. China econ data was not strong and may be a reason that commodities and commodity currencies are weak or alternatively it’s end of month rebalancing with commodities being rebalanced lower.  SPX5100 is an important bull/bear line today. JPM hedged ETF is rolling today with a large short call at 5115 which may act as resistance. MAG7 led by AMZN with earnings AM. TSLA squeeze is being sold today, watch. Bitcoin is unusually lower into month end, typically is marked up, watch. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (512.5-507.7),  QQQ (436.7-428.9), IWM (201.6-198.4), SPX(5140-5092). 

    Stocks to watch
     AMZN, LLY, MMM, PYPL, TSLA, MSTR,  Spec Names ST 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings WELL, NXP, MSTR, YUM, LLY, KO, MCD, ETN, STLA, AMT, ITW, PYPL, TT, MMM
    Indices
    VIX, XLV, UUP, IBIT, SLV, GDX, COPX, FXI, KWEB, FXY, ARKK, TSM, QQQ
    S&P500  LLY, MMM, PYPL, MOS, NXPI, GLW, AON, AMD, AMZN, GEHC, GL, TSLA, NEM, FCX
    Movers ST, THC, HSBC, ROKU, FRO, NVO, GOGL, BE, BUD, PHG, EQNR, SQ, TTD, W, COUR, BBVA, MSTR, STLA, YUMC, AU, GFI, PUK, CLSK, CCJ, PAAS, LSCC, JD, BILI, AA 

     

    Trade Idea: PYPL

    PYPL is higher post earnings, it has pulled back from the expected move (73).  70 is a large call OI level can be used as a decision level.  <70  may open the door for a fade towards 67 >70 a move to 73 and higher. PYPL has changed their method for earnings calculation which may cause some gyrations

     

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